Today / China - Super League / Shanghai Port vs Tianjin JT

Shanghai Port vs Tianjin JT Prediction— China - Super League

Regular Season - 14 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 11:00

Shanghai Port

PPG 1.57 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Tianjin JT

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.5% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-16.4%0-23.8%0-31.5%0-4+0.6%1 1-09.3%1-111.1%1-26.6%1-32.6%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.1%2-19.6%2-25.7%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.7%3-15.6%3-23.3%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-13.6%4+-22.1%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.7% 59.2% 1.69 -14.3%

Draw 25.2% 28.2% 3.55 -6.3%

Away win 24.1% 21.7% 4.60 +6.5%

Over 2.5 59.1% 55.6% 1.80 +6.4%

Over 3.5 33.6% 33.9% 2.95 -0.9%

BTTS 59.5% 58.8% 1.70 +1.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 33%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 66%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob59.5%

H 51% / xG 1.7-1.2 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.1%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 8.1%

#4 1–0 9.3%

#5 0–0 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shanghai Port1.7

Tianjin JT1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 33.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SHANGHAI PORT · PPG 1.57

TIANJIN JT · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.57), Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Shanghai Port (H) 50.7%

ODDS 1.69 · IMPLIED 59.2% EV -14.3%

Draw 25.2%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -6.3%

Tianjin JT (A) 24.1%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +6.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shanghai Port face Tianjin JT in China - Super League on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shanghai Port a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Tianjin JT 24%, so Shanghai Port are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Shanghai Port and 1.2 for Tianjin JT (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shanghai Port are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.33 for Tianjin JT. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +6.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Shanghai Port vs Tianjin JT Prediction— China - Super League

Match Preview & Prediction

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