Oxford City vs Chester Prediction— England - National League - North

England - National League - North North - 45 RAW Charging Stadium· Oxford Saturday, April 18, 2026 14:00

Oxford City PPG 1.45

1-2 HIT CS4

Chester PPG 1.55

Home· +18.5% ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Oxford City face Chester in England - National League - North on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oxford City a 40% chance, the draw 25% and Chester 36%, so Oxford City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Oxford City and 1.4 for Chester (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oxford City are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 1.55 for Chester. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +18.5%. This match finished 1-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 39.5%

Odds: 3.00 EV: +18.5%

Draw 25.0%

Odds: 3.45 EV: -13.8%

Away 35.6%

Odds: 2.10 EV: -25.2%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 54.5% Odds: 1.85 +0.8%

Over 3.5 32.1% Odds: 3.10 -0.5%

BTTS 57.8% Odds: 1.67 -3.5%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 1-0 ✘

4th 1-2 ✔

5th 0-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Oxford City

1.47

Chester

1.39

Model SuggestionBTTS -3.5% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -3.5% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Home (+18.5%) — probability too low to qualify.

Verdict & Form

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.45), Away GOOD (1.55)