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Oxford City vs Chester Prediction— England - National League - North

North - 45 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Oxford City

PPG 1.45 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Chester

PPG 1.55 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 57.8% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-17.9%0-25.5%0-32.5%0-4+1.2%1 1-08.4%1-111.7%1-28.1%1-33.8%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.2%2-18.6%2-26.0%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-03.1%3-14.2%3-22.9%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.2%4+-21.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.5% 33.3% 3.00 +18.5%

Draw 25.0% 29.0% 3.45 -13.8%

Away win 35.6% 47.6% 2.10 -25.2%

Over 2.5 54.5% 54.1% 1.85 +0.8%

Over 3.5 32.1% 32.3% 3.10 -0.5%

BTTS 57.8% 59.9% 1.67 -3.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 4.5%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob57.8%

H 40% / xG 1.5-1.4 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–0 8.4%

#4 1–2✓ 8.1%

#5 0–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Oxford City1.5

Chester1.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.1%

Form & verdict PPG

OXFORD CITY · PPG 1.45

CHESTER · PPG 1.55

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.45), Away GOOD (1.55)

Win probability 1X2

Oxford City (H) 39.5%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +18.5%

Draw 25.0%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -13.8%

Chester (A) 35.6%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -25.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Oxford City face Chester in England - National League - North on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oxford City a 40% chance, the draw 25% and Chester 36%, so Oxford City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Oxford City and 1.4 for Chester (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oxford City are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 1.55 for Chester. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +18.5%. This match finished 1-2.

Oxford City vs Chester Prediction— England - National League - North

Match Preview & Prediction

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