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Podillya K. vs Mariupol Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Regular Season - 29 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 10:00

Podillya K.

PPG 0.43 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Mariupol

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.6%0-117.0%0-29.9%0-33.9%0-4+1.5%1 1-011.1%1-112.9%1-27.5%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-04.2%2-14.9%2-22.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.4%3 3-01.1%3-11.2%3-20.7%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.2% — — —

Draw 31.1% — — —

Away win 41.7% — — —

Over 2.5 35.0% — — —

Over 3.5 13.0% — — —

BTTS 48.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 1.3%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob48.6%

A 42% / xG 0.8-1.2 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0✓ 14.6%

#2 0–1 17.0%

#3 1–1 12.9%

#4 0–2 9.9%

#5 1–0 11.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Podillya K.0.8

Mariupol1.2

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 13.0%

Form & verdict PPG

PODILLYA K. · PPG 0.43

MARIUPOL · PPG 0.93

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.43) vs Away POOR (0.93)

Win probability 1X2

Podillya K. (H) 27.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 31.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Mariupol (A) 41.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Podillya K. face Mariupol in Ukraine - Persha Liga on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Podillya K. a 27% chance, the draw 31% and Mariupol 42%, so Mariupol are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Podillya K. and 1.2 for Mariupol (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Podillya K. are averaging 0.43 points per game versus 0.93 for Mariupol. This match finished 0-0.

Podillya K. vs Mariupol Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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