Today / England - National League - North / Marine vs Alfreton Town

Marine vs Alfreton Town Prediction— England - National League - North

North - 45 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Marine

PPG 1.55 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Alfreton Town

PPG 0.68 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 60.1% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a clear edge.

+17.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-15.3%0-22.6%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.7%1-110.3%1-24.9%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.3%2-19.9%2-24.8%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.7%3-16.4%3-23.1%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-05.0%4+-14.8%4+-22.3%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.1% 51.3% 1.95 +17.2%

Draw 21.7% 28.6% 3.50 -24.1%

Away win 18.2% 30.3% 3.30 -39.9%

Over 2.5 55.4% 55.6% 1.80 -0.3%

Over 3.5 33.0% 32.3% 3.10 +2.3%

BTTS 52.9% 59.9% 1.67 -11.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 4.5%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.9%

H 60% / xG 1.9-1.0 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 10.7%

#2 2–0 10.3%

#3 1–1 10.3%

#4 2–1 9.9%

#5 3–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Marine1.9

Alfreton Town1.0

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.4% · O3.5 PROB 33.0%

Form & verdict PPG

MARINE · PPG 1.55

ALFRETON TOWN · PPG 0.68

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.55) vs P(Home)=60.1%

Win probability 1X2

Marine (H) 60.1%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +17.2%

Draw 21.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -24.1%

Alfreton Town (A) 18.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -39.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Marine face Alfreton Town in England - National League - North on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Marine a 60% chance, the draw 22% and Alfreton Town 18%, so Marine are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Marine and 1.0 for Alfreton Town (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Marine are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 0.68 for Alfreton Town. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +17.2%. This match finished 2-3.

Marine vs Alfreton Town Prediction— England - National League - North

Match Preview & Prediction

More England - National League - North Predictions