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Macclesfield vs Spennymoor Prediction— England - National League - North

North · Matchday 45 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Macclesfield

PPG 1.86 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLWL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Spennymoor

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLWD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 66% chance

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.9% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-14.1%0-22.7%0-31.1%0-4+0.5%1 1-06.9%1-18.9%1-25.7%1-32.5%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.4%2-19.6%2-26.2%2-32.7%2-4+1.1%3 3-05.3%3-16.9%3-24.4%3-31.9%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-16.1%4+-23.9%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.0% 67.6% 1.48 -15.6%

Draw 20.5% 25.0% 4.00 -18.0%

Away win 22.4% 17.4% 5.75 +28.8%

Over 2.5 66.9% 65.4% 1.53 +2.4%

Over 3.5 45.2% 43.5% 2.30 +4.0%

BTTS 64.1% 57.1% 1.75 +12.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 35%

ROI 5.0%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob64.1%

H 57% / xG 2.2-1.3 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.6%

#2 1–1 8.9%

#3 2–0 7.4%

#4 1–0 6.9%

#5 3–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Macclesfield2.2

Spennymoor1.3

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.9% · O3.5 PROB 45.2%

Form & verdict PPG

MACCLESFIELD · PPG 1.86

SPENNYMOOR · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

66%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.86) > Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Macclesfield (H) 57.0%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -15.6%

Draw 20.5%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -18.0%

Spennymoor (A) 22.4%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV +28.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Macclesfield face Spennymoor in England - National League - North on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Macclesfield a 57% chance, the draw 21% and Spennymoor 22%, so Macclesfield are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Macclesfield and 1.3 for Spennymoor (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Macclesfield are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.50 for Spennymoor. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +28.8%. This match finished 0-2.

Macclesfield vs Spennymoor Prediction— England - National League - North

Match Preview & Prediction

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