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Leamington vs Kidderminster Prediction— England - National League - North

North - 45 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Leamington

PPG 0.82 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Kidderminster

PPG 1.59 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 65.9% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-113.3%0-212.9%0-38.4%0-4+6.4%1 1-05.0%1-19.8%1-29.5%1-36.2%1-4+4.7%2 2-01.9%2-13.6%2-23.5%2-32.3%2-4+1.7%3 3-00.5%3-10.9%3-20.9%3-30.6%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.4% 10.3% 9.75 +30.6%

Draw 20.8% 21.1% 4.75 -1.2%

Away win 65.9% 78.1% 1.28 -15.7%

Over 2.5 50.2% 61.7% 1.62 -18.7%

Over 3.5 28.2% 40.0% 2.50 -29.5%

BTTS 44.7% 51.3% 1.95 -12.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 4.5%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob44.7%

A 66% / xG 0.7-1.9 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 45%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 13.3%

#2 0–2 12.9%

#3 1–1 9.8%

#4 1–2 9.5%

#5 0–3 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leamington0.7

Kidderminster1.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 28.2%

Form & verdict PPG

LEAMINGTON · PPG 0.82

KIDDERMINSTER · PPG 1.59

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.59) vs Home POOR (0.82)

Win probability 1X2

Leamington (H) 13.4%

ODDS 9.75 · IMPLIED 10.3% EV +30.6%

Draw 20.8%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -1.2%

Kidderminster (A) 65.9%

ODDS 1.28 · IMPLIED 78.1% EV -15.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leamington face Kidderminster in England - National League - North on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leamington a 13% chance, the draw 21% and Kidderminster 66%, so Kidderminster are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Leamington and 1.9 for Kidderminster (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leamington are averaging 0.82 points per game versus 1.59 for Kidderminster. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +30.6%. This match finished 2-3.

Leamington vs Kidderminster Prediction— England - National League - North

Match Preview & Prediction

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