Kings Lynn vs Chorley Prediction— England - National League - North

England - National League - North North - 45 The Walks· King's Lynn, Norfolk Saturday, April 18, 2026 14:00

Kings Lynn PPG 1.09

1-1 HIT MostLikelyScore

Chorley PPG 0.82

Away· +8.5% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Kings Lynn face Chorley in England - National League - North on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kings Lynn a 39% chance, the draw 26% and Chorley 35%, so Kings Lynn are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Kings Lynn and 1.3 for Chorley (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kings Lynn are averaging 1.09 points per game versus 0.82 for Chorley. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +8.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 38.8%

Odds: 2.05 EV: -20.5%

Draw 26.2%

Odds: 3.40 EV: -10.9%

Away 35.0%

Odds: 3.10 EV: +8.5%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Draw ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 49.0% Odds: 1.83 -10.3%

Over 3.5 27.2% Odds: 3.10 -15.7%

BTTS 53.6% Odds: 1.67 -10.5%

O2.5 UNDER → UNDER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✔

2nd 1-0 ✘

3rd 0-1 ✘

4th 2-1 ✘

5th 1-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Kings Lynn

1.36

Chorley

1.28

Model SuggestionBTTS -10.5% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -10.5% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+8.5%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5/Under 66%

BTTS/No 62%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 5.4%

Bet Hit 67% (12 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.09), Away POOR (0.82)