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Kings Lynn vs Chorley Prediction— England - National League - North

North - 45 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Kings Lynn

PPG 1.09 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Chorley

PPG 0.82 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.6% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-19.2%0-25.8%0-32.5%0-4+1.1%1 1-09.7%1-112.4%1-27.9%1-33.4%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.6%2-18.4%2-25.4%2-32.3%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.0%3-13.8%3-22.4%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.7%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.8% 48.8% 2.05 -20.5%

Draw 26.2% 29.4% 3.40 -10.9%

Away win 35.0% 32.3% 3.10 +8.5%

Over 2.5 49.0% 54.6% 1.83 -10.3%

Over 3.5 27.2% 32.3% 3.10 -15.7%

BTTS 53.6% 59.9% 1.67 -10.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 4.5%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob53.6%

H 39% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 49% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.4%

#2 1–0 9.7%

#3 0–1 9.2%

#4 2–1 8.4%

#5 1–2 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kings Lynn1.4

Chorley1.3

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 49.0% · O3.5 PROB 27.2%

Form & verdict PPG

KINGS LYNN · PPG 1.09

CHORLEY · PPG 0.82

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.09), Away POOR (0.82)

Win probability 1X2

Kings Lynn (H) 38.8%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -20.5%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.9%

Chorley (A) 35.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +8.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kings Lynn face Chorley in England - National League - North on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kings Lynn a 39% chance, the draw 26% and Chorley 35%, so Kings Lynn are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Kings Lynn and 1.3 for Chorley (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kings Lynn are averaging 1.09 points per game versus 0.82 for Chorley. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +8.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Kings Lynn vs Chorley Prediction— England - National League - North

Match Preview & Prediction

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