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Qingdao RL vs Nantong Haimen Prediction— China - League Two

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 07:30

Qingdao RL

PPG 1.00 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

Nantong Haimen

PPG 0.25 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-018.4%0-115.5%0-26.6%0-31.8%0-4+0.5%1 1-015.6%1-113.2%1-25.6%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-06.6%2-15.6%2-22.4%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-01.9%3-11.6%3-20.7%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.4% 32.3% 3.10 +12.8%

Draw 34.2% 33.3% 3.00 +2.6%

Away win 29.5% 46.5% 2.15 -21.9%

Over 2.5 35.0% 44.4% 2.25 -21.3%

Over 3.5 9.2% 25.1% 3.98 -38.0%

BTTS 46.2% 50.0% 2.00 -7.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 1.7%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob46.2%

D 34% / xG 0.8-0.8 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 18.4%

#2 1–1 13.2%

#3 1–0 15.6%

#4 0–1✓ 15.5%

#5 2–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Qingdao RL0.8

Nantong Haimen0.8

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 9.2%

Form & verdict PPG

QINGDAO RL · PPG 1.00

NANTONG HAIMEN · PPG 0.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.25)

Win probability 1X2

Qingdao RL (H) 36.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +12.8%

Draw 34.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +2.6%

Nantong Haimen (A) 29.5%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -21.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Qingdao RL face Nantong Haimen in China - League Two on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Qingdao RL a 36% chance, the draw 34% and Nantong Haimen 30%, so Qingdao RL are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Qingdao RL and 0.8 for Nantong Haimen (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Qingdao RL are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.25 for Nantong Haimen. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +12.8%. This match finished 0-1.

Qingdao RL vs Nantong Haimen Prediction— China - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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