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Shanxi Ronghai vs Changchun Xidu Prediction— China - League Two

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 07:00

Shanxi Ronghai

PPG 1.00 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

Changchun Xidu

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.9%0-112.5%0-24.3%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.3%1-112.8%1-24.4%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-09.4%2-16.5%2-22.3%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.2%3-12.2%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-10.7%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.3% 57.1% 1.75 -24.2%

Draw 32.8% 31.3% 3.20 +5.0%

Away win 23.9% 23.8% 4.20 +0.2%

Over 2.5 35.0% 48.8% 2.05 -28.2%

Over 3.5 9.6% 26.9% 3.72 -38.6%

BTTS 46.2% 50.0% 2.00 -7.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 1.7%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob46.2%

H 43% / xG 1.0-0.7 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.9%

#2 1–0 18.3%

#3 1–1 12.8%

#4 0–1 12.5%

#5 2–0 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shanxi Ronghai1.0

Changchun Xidu0.7

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 9.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SHANXI RONGHAI · PPG 1.00

CHANGCHUN XIDU · PPG 0.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.60)

Win probability 1X2

Shanxi Ronghai (H) 43.3%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV -24.2%

Draw 32.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +5.0%

Changchun Xidu (A) 23.9%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +0.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shanxi Ronghai face Changchun Xidu in China - League Two on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shanxi Ronghai a 43% chance, the draw 33% and Changchun Xidu 24%, so Shanxi Ronghai are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Shanxi Ronghai and 0.7 for Changchun Xidu (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shanxi Ronghai are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.60 for Changchun Xidu. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +5.0%. This match finished 3-0.

Shanxi Ronghai vs Changchun Xidu Prediction— China - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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