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Hereford Utd vs Radcliffe Prediction— England - National League - North

North - 45 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Hereford Utd

PPG 1.20 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Radcliffe

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 73.0% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-14.4%0-24.3%0-32.8%0-4+2.2%1 1-04.1%1-18.1%1-27.9%1-35.2%1-4+4.0%2 2-03.8%2-17.4%2-27.3%2-34.7%2-4+3.6%3 3-02.3%3-14.5%3-24.4%3-32.9%3-4+2.2%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-13.2%4+-23.1%4+-32.0%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.9% 48.8% 2.05 -24.4%

Draw 21.3% 26.0% 3.85 -18.0%

Away win 41.8% 34.7% 2.88 +20.4%

Over 2.5 73.0% 69.0% 1.45 +5.9%

Over 3.5 52.5% 45.5% 2.20 +15.5%

BTTS 72.2% 70.4% 1.42 +2.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 4.5%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob72.2%

A 42% / xG 1.8-2.0 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 72%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.1%

#2 1–2 7.9%

#3 2–1 7.4%

#4 2–2 7.3%

#5 1–3 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hereford Utd1.8

Radcliffe2.0

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.0% · O3.5 PROB 52.5%

Form & verdict PPG

HEREFORD UTD · PPG 1.20

RADCLIFFE · PPG 1.27

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.20), Away AVERAGE (1.27)

Win probability 1X2

Hereford Utd (H) 36.9%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -24.4%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -18.0%

Radcliffe (A) 41.8%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV +20.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hereford Utd face Radcliffe in England - National League - North on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hereford Utd a 37% chance, the draw 21% and Radcliffe 42%, so Radcliffe are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Hereford Utd and 2.0 for Radcliffe (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 72% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hereford Utd are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.27 for Radcliffe. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +20.4%. This match finished 3-1.

Hereford Utd vs Radcliffe Prediction— England - National League - North

Match Preview & Prediction

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