Today / Australia - Western Australia NPL / Stirling vs Bayswater

Stirling vs Bayswater Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 07:00

Stirling

PPG 1.20 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Bayswater

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-13.9%0-23.9%0-32.5%0-4+2.0%1 1-03.9%1-17.6%1-27.5%1-34.9%1-4+3.8%2 2-03.8%2-17.4%2-27.3%2-34.8%2-4+3.7%3 3-02.4%3-14.8%3-24.7%3-33.1%3-4+2.4%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-13.7%4+-23.6%4+-32.4%4+-4+1.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.8% 41.7% 2.40 -6.9%

Draw 24.3% 27.8% 3.60 -7.5%

Away win 36.9% 42.0% 2.38 -12.2%

Over 2.5 63.9% 71.4% 1.40 -10.5%

Over 3.5 55.1% 52.4% 1.91 +5.2%

BTTS 63.0% 73.5% 1.36 -14.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 72%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 6.4%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob63.0%

A 37% / xG 1.9-2.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.6%

#2 1–2✓ 7.5%

#3 2–1 7.4%

#4 2–2 7.3%

#5 1–3 4.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Stirling1.9

Bayswater2.0

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 55.1%

Form & verdict PPG

STIRLING · PPG 1.20

BAYSWATER · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.20) > Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Stirling (H) 38.8%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -6.9%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -7.5%

Bayswater (A) 36.9%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -12.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Stirling face Bayswater in Australia - Western Australia NPL on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Stirling a 39% chance, the draw 24% and Bayswater 37%, so Stirling are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Stirling and 2.0 for Bayswater (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Stirling are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 0.75 for Bayswater. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +5.2%. This match finished 1-2.

Stirling vs Bayswater Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - Western Australia NPL Predictions