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Sorrento vs O. Kingsway Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 07:00

Sorrento

PPG 1.17 · HOME

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

O. Kingsway

PPG 1.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.7 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-111.1%0-29.0%0-34.9%0-4+2.9%1 1-07.2%1-111.7%1-29.6%1-35.2%1-4+3.0%2 2-03.8%2-16.2%2-25.0%2-32.7%2-4+1.6%3 3-01.3%3-12.2%3-21.8%3-31.0%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.7%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.3% — — —

Draw 26.4% — — —

Away win 45.3% — — —

Over 2.5 52.6% — — —

Over 3.5 28.2% — — —

BTTS 52.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 72%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 6.4%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob52.6%

A 45% / xG 1.1-1.6 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–2 9.6%

#3 0–1 11.1%

#4 0–2 9.0%

#5 0–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sorrento1.1

O. Kingsway1.6

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SORRENTO · PPG 1.17

O. KINGSWAY · PPG 1.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.83) vs Home AVERAGE (1.17)

Win probability 1X2

Sorrento (H) 28.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

O. Kingsway (A) 45.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Sorrento face O. Kingsway in Australia - Western Australia NPL on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sorrento a 28% chance, the draw 26% and O. Kingsway 45%, so O. Kingsway are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Sorrento and 1.6 for O. Kingsway (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sorrento are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 1.83 for O. Kingsway. This match finished 1-4.

Sorrento vs O. Kingsway Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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