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Fremantle City vs Perth Glory B Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 07:00

Fremantle City

PPG 1.00 · HOME

4 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Perth Glory B

PPG 0.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-15.3%0-24.4%0-32.5%0-4+1.5%1 1-05.6%1-19.4%1-27.9%1-34.4%1-4+2.7%2 2-05.0%2-18.4%2-27.0%2-33.9%2-4+2.4%3 3-03.0%3-15.0%3-24.2%3-32.3%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-13.3%4+-22.8%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.8% 36.4% 2.75 +14.9%

Draw 23.1% 29.4% 3.40 -12.9%

Away win 35.1% 45.5% 2.20 -22.8%

Over 2.5 63.9% 66.7% 1.50 -4.2%

Over 3.5 45.4% 47.6% 2.10 -4.7%

BTTS 62.5% 71.4% 1.40 -12.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 72%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 6.4%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-3

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob62.5%

H 42% / xG 1.8-1.7 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.4%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 1–2 7.9%

#4 2–2 7.0%

#5 2–0 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fremantle City1.8

Perth Glory B1.7

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 45.4%

Form & verdict PPG

FREMANTLE CITY · PPG 1.00

PERTH GLORY B · PPG 0.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away POOR (0.86)

Win probability 1X2

Fremantle City (H) 41.8%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +14.9%

Draw 23.1%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -12.9%

Perth Glory B (A) 35.1%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -22.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fremantle City face Perth Glory B in Australia - Western Australia NPL on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fremantle City a 42% chance, the draw 23% and Perth Glory B 35%, so Fremantle City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Fremantle City and 1.7 for Perth Glory B (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fremantle City are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.86 for Perth Glory B. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +14.9%. This match finished 4-3.

Fremantle City vs Perth Glory B Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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