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Dianella WE vs Armadale Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 07:00

Dianella WE

PPG 1.00 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Armadale

PPG 0.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 69.8% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.2%0-12.2%0-22.0%0-31.2%0-4+0.8%1 1-03.1%1-15.6%1-25.1%1-33.1%1-4+2.1%2 2-04.0%2-17.4%2-26.7%2-34.1%2-4+2.8%3 3-03.5%3-16.4%3-25.9%3-33.6%3-4+2.4%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-17.9%4+-27.2%4+-34.4%4+-4+3.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.1% 51.3% 1.95 +1.6%

Draw 22.8% 25.6% 3.90 -6.7%

Away win 25.1% 34.5% 2.90 -16.3%

Over 2.5 69.8% 75.2% 1.33 -7.2%

Over 3.5 64.7% 55.6% 1.80 +16.5%

BTTS 66.7% 75.2% 1.33 -11.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 72%

Score Hit 38%

ROI 6.4%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob66.7%

H 52% / xG 2.6-1.8 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.4%

#2 2–2✓ 6.7%

#3 1–1 5.6%

#4 3–1 6.4%

#5 3–2 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dianella WE2.6

Armadale1.8

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.8% · O3.5 PROB 64.7%

Form & verdict PPG

DIANELLA WE · PPG 1.00

ARMADALE · PPG 0.17

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.00) vs P(Home)=52.1%

Win probability 1X2

Dianella WE (H) 52.1%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +1.6%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -6.7%

Armadale (A) 25.1%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -16.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dianella WE face Armadale in Australia - Western Australia NPL on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dianella WE a 52% chance, the draw 23% and Armadale 25%, so Dianella WE are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Dianella WE and 1.8 for Armadale (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dianella WE are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.17 for Armadale. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +16.5%. This match finished 2-2.

Dianella WE vs Armadale Prediction— Australia - Western Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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