Curzon vs Buxton Prediction— England - National League - North

England - National League - North North - 45 Tameside Stadium· Ashton-under-Lyne Saturday, April 18, 2026 14:00

Curzon PPG 1.14

0-4 MISS

Buxton PPG 1.73

Over3.5· +7.9% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Curzon face Buxton in England - National League - North on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Curzon a 26% chance, the draw 21% and Buxton 54%, so Buxton are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Curzon and 2.1 for Buxton (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Curzon are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 1.73 for Buxton. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +7.9%. This match finished 0-4.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 25.5%

Odds: 3.35 EV: -14.6%

Draw 20.9%

Odds: 3.75 EV: -21.6%

Away 53.6%

Odds: 1.85 EV: -0.8%

Model lean: Over 2.5

Result: Away ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 68.4% Odds: 1.50 +2.6%

Over 3.5 46.9% Odds: 2.30 +7.9%

BTTS 66.5% Odds: 1.45 -3.6%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-2 ✘

2nd 1-1 ✘

3rd 0-2 ✘

4th 2-2 ✘

5th 1-3 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Curzon

1.41

Buxton

2.11

Model SuggestionOver 2.5 +2.6% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5. 
Raw EV leader: Over3.5(+7.9%)

League Track Record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5/Under 66%

BTTS/No 62%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 5.4%

Bet Hit 67% (12 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.73) vs Home AVERAGE (1.14)