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Curzon vs Buxton Prediction— England - National League - North

North - 45 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Curzon

PPG 1.14 · HOME

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Buxton

PPG 1.73 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-16.2%0-26.6%0-34.6%0-4+4.0%1 1-04.2%1-18.8%1-29.3%1-36.5%1-4+5.6%2 2-02.9%2-16.2%2-26.6%2-34.6%2-4+4.0%3 3-01.4%3-12.9%3-23.1%3-32.2%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.4%4+-21.5%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 25.5% 29.9% 3.35 -14.6%

Draw 20.9% 26.7% 3.75 -21.6%

Away win 53.6% 54.1% 1.85 -0.8%

Over 2.5 68.4% 66.7% 1.50 +2.6%

Over 3.5 46.9% 43.5% 2.30 +7.9%

BTTS 66.5% 69.0% 1.45 -3.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 4.5%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob66.5%

A 54% / xG 1.4-2.1 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.3%

#2 1–1 8.8%

#3 0–2 6.6%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 1–3 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Curzon1.4

Buxton2.1

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 46.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CURZON · PPG 1.14

BUXTON · PPG 1.73

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.73) vs Home AVERAGE (1.14)

Win probability 1X2

Curzon (H) 25.5%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -14.6%

Draw 20.9%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -21.6%

Buxton (A) 53.6%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -0.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Curzon face Buxton in England - National League - North on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Curzon a 26% chance, the draw 21% and Buxton 54%, so Buxton are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Curzon and 2.1 for Buxton (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Curzon are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 1.73 for Buxton. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +7.9%. This match finished 0-4.

Curzon vs Buxton Prediction— England - National League - North

Match Preview & Prediction

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