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Launceston Utd vs Glenorchy K. Prediction— Australia - Tasmania NPL

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 06:45

Launceston Utd

PPG 0.00 · HOME

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Glenorchy K.

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 85.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-13.8%0-24.9%0-34.1%0-4+4.8%1 1-02.5%1-16.4%1-28.1%1-36.8%1-4+7.9%2 2-02.1%2-15.3%2-26.7%2-35.6%2-4+6.5%3 3-01.1%3-12.9%3-23.7%3-33.1%3-4+3.6%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.7%4+-22.2%4+-31.9%4+-4+2.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.5% 7.1% 14.00 +162.6%

Draw 22.0% 13.8% 7.25 +35.7%

Away win 51.5% 90.9% 1.10 -43.4%

Over 2.5 63.9% 85.5% 1.17 -25.2%

Over 3.5 60.3% 69.9% 1.43 -13.8%

BTTS 63.0% 60.6% 1.65 +4.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -8.8%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob63.0%

A 52% / xG 1.7-2.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.1%

#2 1–1 6.4%

#3 1–3 6.8%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 2–3 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Launceston Utd1.7

Glenorchy K.2.5

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 60.3%

Form & verdict PPG

LAUNCESTON UTD · PPG 0.00

GLENORCHY K. · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Launceston Utd (H) 26.5%

ODDS 14.00 · IMPLIED 7.1% EV +162.6%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 7.25 · IMPLIED 13.8% EV +35.7%

Glenorchy K. (A) 51.5%

ODDS 1.10 · IMPLIED 90.9% EV -43.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Launceston Utd face Glenorchy K. in Australia - Tasmania NPL on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Launceston Utd a 27% chance, the draw 22% and Glenorchy K. 52%, so Glenorchy K. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Launceston Utd and 2.5 for Glenorchy K. (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Launceston Utd are averaging 0.00 points per game versus 0.00 for Glenorchy K.. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +162.6%. This match finished 0-4.

Launceston Utd vs Glenorchy K. Prediction— Australia - Tasmania NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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