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Valentine vs Broadmeadow Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Saturday, May 23, 2026, 06:30

Valentine

PPG 0.20 · HOME

UPCOMING

Broadmeadow

PPG 2.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 75.8% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.8%0-13.3%0-26.4%0-38.4%0-4+22.8%1 1-00.7%1-12.9%1-25.6%1-37.3%1-4+19.9%2 2-00.3%2-11.3%2-22.5%2-33.2%2-4+8.7%3 3-00.1%3-10.4%3-20.7%3-30.9%3-4+2.5%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.2%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 9.2% 9.1% 11.00 +0.7%

Draw 21.5% 16.7% 6.00 +17.4%

Away win 69.3% 83.3% 1.20 -16.8%

Over 2.5 75.8% 78.1% 1.28 -3.0%

Over 3.5 70.1% 61.7% 1.62 +13.6%

BTTS 54.6% 61.7% 1.62 -11.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 78%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -0.3%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 69%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)3.9 BTTS prob54.6%

A 69% / xG 0.9-3.9 / O2.5 76% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–3 8.4%

#2 0–4 8.1%

#3 1–3 7.3%

#4 1–4 7.1%

#5 0–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Valentine0.9

Broadmeadow3.9

COMBINED 4.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 75.8% · O3.5 PROB 70.1%

Form & verdict PPG

VALENTINE · PPG 0.20

BROADMEADOW · PPG 2.50

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs Home POOR (0.20)

Win probability 1X2

Valentine (H) 9.2%

ODDS 11.00 · IMPLIED 9.1% EV +0.7%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +17.4%

Broadmeadow (A) 69.3%

ODDS 1.20 · IMPLIED 83.3% EV -16.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Valentine face Broadmeadow in Australia - Northern NSW NPL on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Valentine a 9% chance, the draw 22% and Broadmeadow 69%, so Broadmeadow are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Valentine and 3.9 for Broadmeadow (4.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-3. There is a 76% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Valentine are averaging 0.20 points per game versus 2.50 for Broadmeadow. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +17.4%.

Valentine vs Broadmeadow Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - Northern NSW NPL Predictions