Today / England - National League - North / AFC Fylde vs Southport

AFC Fylde vs Southport Prediction— England - National League - North

North - 45 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

AFC Fylde

PPG 2.41 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Southport

PPG 1.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 74.5% vs bookmaker-implied 82.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-12.2%0-21.1%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-06.0%1-16.2%1-23.2%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-08.5%2-18.7%2-24.5%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-08.0%3-18.2%3-24.2%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-011.2%4+-111.5%4+-25.9%4+-32.0%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 74.5% 82.0% 1.22 -9.1%

Draw 14.5% 20.8% 4.80 -30.4%

Away win 11.0% 7.1% 14.00 +54.0%

Over 2.5 73.9% 65.4% 1.53 +13.1%

Over 3.5 53.6% 43.5% 2.30 +23.3%

BTTS 60.4% 55.6% 1.80 +8.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 4.5%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 79%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob60.4%

H 74% / xG 2.8-1.0 / O2.5 74% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.7%

#2 2–0 8.5%

#3 3–1 8.2%

#4 3–0 8.0%

#5 1–1 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

AFC Fylde2.8

Southport1.0

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.9% · O3.5 PROB 53.6%

Form & verdict PPG

AFC FYLDE · PPG 2.41

SOUTHPORT · PPG 1.29

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.41), Away AVERAGE (1.29) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

AFC Fylde (H) 74.5%

ODDS 1.22 · IMPLIED 82.0% EV -9.1%

Draw 14.5%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -30.4%

Southport (A) 11.0%

ODDS 14.00 · IMPLIED 7.1% EV +54.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

AFC Fylde face Southport in England - National League - North on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AFC Fylde a 75% chance, the draw 14% and Southport 11%, so AFC Fylde are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for AFC Fylde and 1.0 for Southport (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AFC Fylde are averaging 2.41 points per game versus 1.29 for Southport. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +54.0%. This match finished 4-0.

AFC Fylde vs Southport Prediction— England - National League - North

Match Preview & Prediction

More England - National League - North Predictions