AFC Fylde vs Southport Prediction— England - National League - North

England - National League - North North - 45 Mill Farm· Wesham Saturday, April 18, 2026 14:00

AFC Fylde PPG 2.41

4-0 MISS

Southport PPG 1.29

Away· +54.0% ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

AFC Fylde face Southport in England - National League - North on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives AFC Fylde a 75% chance, the draw 14% and Southport 11%, so AFC Fylde are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for AFC Fylde and 1.0 for Southport (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, AFC Fylde are averaging 2.41 points per game versus 1.29 for Southport. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +54.0%. This match finished 4-0.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 74.5%

Odds: 1.22 EV: -9.1%

Draw 14.5%

Odds: 4.80 EV: -30.4%

Away 11.0%

Odds: 14.00 EV: +54.0%

Model lean: Home

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 73.9% Odds: 1.53 +13.1%

Over 3.5 53.6% Odds: 2.30 +23.3%

BTTS 60.4% Odds: 1.80 +8.7%

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 2-1 ✘

2nd 2-0 ✘

3rd 3-1 ✘

4th 3-0 ✘

5th 1-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

AFC Fylde

2.82

Southport

1.03

Model SuggestionHome -9.1% ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5. 
Raw EV leader: Away(+54.0%)

League Track Record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 38%

O2.5/Under 66%

BTTS/No 62%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 5.4%

Bet Hit 67% (12 bets)

Verdict & Form

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.41), Away AVERAGE (1.29) - Strong consensus