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South East Utd vs Ulverstone Prediction— Australia - Tasmania NPL

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 04:30

South East Utd

PPG 0.00 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Ulverstone

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 79.0% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.5%0-11.1%0-21.1%0-30.8%0-4+0.7%1 1-01.6%1-13.4%1-23.6%1-32.6%1-4+2.2%2 2-02.5%2-15.4%2-25.7%2-34.1%2-4+3.6%3 3-02.6%3-15.6%3-26.0%3-34.3%3-4+3.7%4+ 4+-04.6%4+-19.8%4+-210.5%4+-37.4%4+-4+6.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.0% 67.6% 1.48 -21.6%

Draw 22.1% 21.1% 4.75 +3.0%

Away win 24.9% 22.7% 4.40 +5.7%

Over 2.5 79.0% 80.0% 1.25 -1.3%

Over 3.5 77.4% 64.5% 1.55 +20.0%

BTTS 66.7% 76.9% 1.30 -13.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -8.8%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)3.2 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob66.7%

H 53% / xG 3.2-2.1 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–2 6.0%

#2 2–2 5.7%

#3 3–1 5.6%

#4 2–1 5.4%

#5 4–2 4.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

South East Utd3.2

Ulverstone2.1

COMBINED 5.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.0% · O3.5 PROB 77.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SOUTH EAST UTD · PPG 0.00

ULVERSTONE · PPG 0.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

South East Utd (H) 53.0%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -21.6%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV +3.0%

Ulverstone (A) 24.9%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +5.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

South East Utd face Ulverstone in Australia - Tasmania NPL on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives South East Utd a 53% chance, the draw 22% and Ulverstone 25%, so South East Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.2 for South East Utd and 2.1 for Ulverstone (5.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-2. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, South East Utd are averaging 0.00 points per game versus 0.00 for Ulverstone. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +20.0%. This match finished 2-0.

South East Utd vs Ulverstone Prediction— Australia - Tasmania NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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