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Riverside vs South Hobart Prediction— Australia - Tasmania NPL

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 04:30

Riverside

PPG 2.25 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

South Hobart

PPG 3.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 76.5% vs bookmaker-implied 83.3%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.8%0-12.9%0-25.2%0-36.1%0-4+13.1%1 1-01.1%1-13.7%1-26.6%1-37.7%1-4+16.6%2 2-00.7%2-12.4%2-24.2%2-34.9%2-4+10.6%3 3-00.3%3-11.0%3-21.8%3-32.1%3-4+4.5%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.4%4+-20.7%4+-30.9%4+-4+1.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.0% 6.7% 15.00 +66.0%

Draw 20.4% 13.9% 7.20 +28.1%

Away win 65.6% 91.7% 1.09 -28.5%

Over 2.5 76.5% 83.3% 1.20 -8.2%

Over 3.5 70.3% 69.4% 1.44 +1.2%

BTTS 62.5% 58.8% 1.70 +6.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -8.8%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 74%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)3.5 BTTS prob62.5%

A 66% / xG 1.3-3.5 / O2.5 76% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–3 7.7%

#2 1–4 6.7%

#3 1–2 6.6%

#4 0–3 6.1%

#5 0–4 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Riverside1.3

South Hobart3.5

COMBINED 4.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 76.5% · O3.5 PROB 70.3%

Form & verdict PPG

RIVERSIDE · PPG 2.25

SOUTH HOBART · PPG 3.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs Home EXCELLENT (2.25)

Win probability 1X2

Riverside (H) 14.0%

ODDS 15.00 · IMPLIED 6.7% EV +66.0%

Draw 20.4%

ODDS 7.20 · IMPLIED 13.9% EV +28.1%

South Hobart (A) 65.6%

ODDS 1.09 · IMPLIED 91.7% EV -28.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Riverside face South Hobart in Australia - Tasmania NPL on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Riverside a 14% chance, the draw 20% and South Hobart 66%, so South Hobart are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Riverside and 3.5 for South Hobart (4.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-3. There is a 77% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Riverside are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 3.00 for South Hobart. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +66.0%. This match finished 1-1.

Riverside vs South Hobart Prediction— Australia - Tasmania NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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