Today / Australia - Tasmania NPL / Clarence Zebras vs Kingborough L.

Clarence Zebras vs Kingborough L. Prediction— Australia - Tasmania NPL

Regular Season - 9 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 04:30

Clarence Zebras

PPG 2.00 · HOME

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Kingborough L.

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-13.4%0-23.2%0-32.0%0-4+1.4%1 1-03.9%1-17.3%1-26.8%1-34.2%1-4+3.0%2 2-04.2%2-17.8%2-27.3%2-34.5%2-4+3.2%3 3-03.0%3-15.5%3-25.2%3-33.2%3-4+2.3%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-14.8%4+-24.5%4+-32.8%4+-4+2.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.2% 23.8% 4.20 +85.6%

Draw 22.4% 23.1% 4.33 -1.8%

Away win 33.4% 65.4% 1.53 -48.9%

Over 2.5 63.9% 76.9% 1.30 -16.9%

Over 3.5 56.7% 60.6% 1.65 -6.5%

BTTS 63.0% 73.5% 1.36 -14.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -8.8%

Bet Hit 72%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob63.0%

H 44% / xG 2.1-1.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.3%

#2 2–1 7.8%

#3 2–2 7.3%

#4 1–2 6.8%

#5 3–1 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Clarence Zebras2.1

Kingborough L.1.9

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 56.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CLARENCE ZEBRAS · PPG 2.00

KINGBOROUGH L. · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=44.2%

Win probability 1X2

Clarence Zebras (H) 44.2%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +85.6%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -1.8%

Kingborough L. (A) 33.4%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -48.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Clarence Zebras face Kingborough L. in Australia - Tasmania NPL on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Clarence Zebras a 44% chance, the draw 22% and Kingborough L. 33%, so Clarence Zebras are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Clarence Zebras and 1.9 for Kingborough L. (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Clarence Zebras are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.00 for Kingborough L.. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +85.6%. This match finished 0-4.

Clarence Zebras vs Kingborough L. Prediction— Australia - Tasmania NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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