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Australia - Tasmania NPL Saturday, May 23, 2026 04:30 
Clarence Zebras PPG 2.00 
Kingborough L. PPG 1.00
Australia - Tasmania NPL Saturday, May 23, 2026 04:30 Clarence Zebras PPG 2.000-4 MISS
Kingborough L. PPG 1.00Home· +85.6% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
66% confidence
Match Result (1X2)
Model lean: Over 2.5 Not tracked as an official bet.
Result: Away
✘
Goals Markets
Over 2.5 63.9% Odds: 1.30 -16.9%
Over 3.5 56.7% Odds: 1.65 -6.5%
BTTS 63.0% Odds: 1.36 -14.3%
O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → NO ✘
Correct Score Picks
1st 1-1 ✘
2nd 2-1 ✘
3rd 2-2 ✘
4th 1-2 ✘
5th 3-1 ✘
Expected Goals (xG)
Clarence Zebras 2.13
Kingborough L. 1.87
Model Suggestion
Over 2.5 -16.9% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Over 2.5, but EV is -16.9% at these odds — not a recommended bet.
Highest raw EV: Home (+85.6%) — probability too low to qualify.
Highest raw EV: Home (+85.6%) — probability too low to qualify.
League Track Record ↗
Based on 15 resolved predictions
1X2 Acc 87%
O2.5/Under 80%
BTTS/No 53%
Score Hit 27%
ROI 20.6%
Bet Hit 80% (5 bets)
Verdict & Form
⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned
HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME 66%
Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=44.2%