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Dinamo Zagreb vs Rijeka Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Matchday 30 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Dinamo Zagreb

PPG 2.64 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Rijeka

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWDW

// Model verdict

Home 76% chance

Model probability 83.1% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5% — a clear edge.

+14.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-11.8%0-20.6%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-08.2%1-15.4%1-21.8%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.9%2-17.8%2-22.6%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.6%3-17.6%3-22.5%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-017.4%4+-111.4%4+-23.7%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 83.1% 72.5% 1.38 +14.7%

Draw 11.3% 23.8% 4.20 -52.5%

Away win 5.6% 12.8% 7.80 -56.3%

Over 2.5 69.3% 58.8% 1.70 +17.8%

Over 3.5 48.0% 36.4% 2.75 +32.0%

BTTS 45.5% 54.1% 1.85 -15.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -14.8%

Bet Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 72%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob45.5%

H 83% / xG 2.9-0.7 / O2.5 69% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.9%

#2 3–0 11.6%

#3 4–0 8.5%

#4 1–0 8.2%

#5 2–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dinamo Zagreb2.9

Rijeka0.7

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.3% · O3.5 PROB 48.0%

Form & verdict PPG

DINAMO ZAGREB · PPG 2.64

RIJEKA · PPG 1.14

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

Chance this pick lands

76%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.64), Away AVERAGE (1.14) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Dinamo Zagreb (H) 83.1%

ODDS 1.38 · IMPLIED 72.5% EV +14.7%

Draw 11.3%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -52.5%

Rijeka (A) 5.6%

ODDS 7.80 · IMPLIED 12.8% EV -56.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dinamo Zagreb face Rijeka in Croatia - HNL on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dinamo Zagreb a 83% chance, the draw 11% and Rijeka 6%, so Dinamo Zagreb are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Dinamo Zagreb and 0.7 for Rijeka (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dinamo Zagreb are averaging 2.64 points per game versus 1.14 for Rijeka. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +32.0%. This match finished 2-2.

Dinamo Zagreb vs Rijeka Prediction— Croatia - HNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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