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Weston Bears vs Maitland Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, May 23, 2026, 04:00

Weston Bears

PPG 1.17 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Maitland

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 71.8% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-12.0%0-21.9%0-31.2%0-4+0.9%1 1-02.7%1-15.2%1-25.1%1-33.3%1-4+2.5%2 2-03.6%2-16.9%2-26.7%2-34.3%2-4+3.3%3 3-03.2%3-16.1%3-25.9%3-33.8%3-4+2.9%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-17.7%4+-27.4%4+-34.8%4+-4+3.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.9% 54.1% 1.85 -4.0%

Draw 22.6% 25.6% 3.90 -7.1%

Away win 25.5% 32.3% 3.10 -12.6%

Over 2.5 71.8% 80.0% 1.25 -10.3%

Over 3.5 67.2% 62.9% 1.59 +6.9%

BTTS 66.7% 82.0% 1.22 -18.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 49 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 76%

BTTS 78%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -0.3%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob66.7%

H 52% / xG 2.6-1.9 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 6.9%

#2 2–2 6.7%

#3 3–1 6.1%

#4 1–1 5.2%

#5 3–2 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Weston Bears2.6

Maitland1.9

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.8% · O3.5 PROB 67.2%

Form & verdict PPG

WESTON BEARS · PPG 1.17

MAITLAND · PPG 1.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ MIXED SIGNALS - Model favors home but form suggests away strength ...

48%

CAUTION_HOME

Caution: Away form (1.71) strong but model favors Home (P=51.9%)

Win probability 1X2

Weston Bears (H) 51.9%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -4.0%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -7.1%

Maitland (A) 25.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -12.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Weston Bears face Maitland in Australia - Northern NSW NPL on Saturday, May 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Weston Bears a 52% chance, the draw 23% and Maitland 26%, so Weston Bears are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Weston Bears and 1.9 for Maitland (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Weston Bears are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 1.71 for Maitland. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +6.9%. This match finished 0-1.

Weston Bears vs Maitland Prediction— Australia - Northern NSW NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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