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Nautico vs Cuiaba Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Matchday 10 ·Friday, May 22, 2026, 22:00

Nautico

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDWW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Cuiaba

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDWL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-032.0%0-115.5%0-23.8%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-021.0%1-110.1%1-22.5%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-06.9%2-13.3%2-20.8%2-30.1%2-4+0.0%3 3-01.5%3-10.7%3-20.2%3-30.0%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.1%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.0% 52.6% 1.90 -33.5%

Draw 41.0% 31.7% 3.15 +29.1%

Away win 24.0% 22.5% 4.45 +4.1%

Over 2.5 23.8% 41.7% 2.40 -25.7%

Over 3.5 2.9% 21.1% 4.75 -51.7%

BTTS 29.3% 48.8% 2.05 -24.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 175 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 58%

ROI 22.2%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob29.3%

H 35% / xG 0.7-0.5 / U2.5 24% / NoBTTS 29%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 32.0%

#2 1–0✓ 21.0%

#3 0–1 15.5%

#4 1–1 10.1%

#5 2–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nautico0.7

Cuiaba0.5

COMBINED 1.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 23.8% · O3.5 PROB 2.9%

Form & verdict PPG

NAUTICO · PPG 1.50

CUIABA · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity | Best EV...

Chance this pick lands

41%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Nautico (H) 35.0%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -33.5%

Draw 41.0%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV +29.1%

Cuiaba (A) 24.0%

ODDS 4.45 · IMPLIED 22.5% EV +4.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nautico face Cuiaba in Brazil - Serie B on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nautico a 35% chance, the draw 41% and Cuiaba 24%, so a draw is the most likely result. Expected goals are 0.7 for Nautico and 0.5 for Cuiaba (1.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 24% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 29% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nautico are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.50 for Cuiaba. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +29.1%. This match finished 1-0.

Nautico vs Cuiaba Prediction— Brazil - Serie B

Match Preview & Prediction

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