Today / Peru - Primera División / Juan Pablo II vs FBC Melgar

Juan Pablo II vs FBC Melgar Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 16 ·Friday, May 22, 2026, 20:00

Juan Pablo II

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LDLWW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

FBC Melgar

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 55% chance

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.6% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a clear edge.

+24.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-16.9%0-27.1%0-34.9%0-4+4.0%1 1-04.5%1-19.2%1-29.5%1-36.5%1-4+5.4%2 2-03.0%2-16.2%2-26.3%2-34.3%2-4+3.6%3 3-01.3%3-12.8%3-22.8%3-31.9%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.2%4+-21.3%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.6% 26.7% 3.75 +4.3%

Draw 25.1% 29.4% 3.40 -8.8%

Away win 46.3% 51.0% 1.96 -9.3%

Over 2.5 63.6% 51.3% 1.95 +24.0%

Over 3.5 44.0% 29.4% 3.40 +49.6%

BTTS 59.7% 57.1% 1.75 +4.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 112 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 51%

ROI 11.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob59.7%

A 46% / xG 1.3-2.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 9.2%

#2 1–2 9.5%

#3 0–2 7.1%

#4 1–3 6.5%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Juan Pablo II1.3

FBC Melgar2.1

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 44.0%

Form & verdict PPG

JUAN PABLO II · PPG 1.00

FBC MELGAR · PPG 1.14

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

55%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.14)

Win probability 1X2

Juan Pablo II (H) 28.6%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +4.3%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -8.8%

FBC Melgar (A) 46.3%

ODDS 1.96 · IMPLIED 51.0% EV -9.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Juan Pablo II face FBC Melgar in Peru - Primera División on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Juan Pablo II a 29% chance, the draw 25% and FBC Melgar 46%, so FBC Melgar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Juan Pablo II and 2.1 for FBC Melgar (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Juan Pablo II are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.14 for FBC Melgar. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +49.6%. This match finished 1-1.

Juan Pablo II vs FBC Melgar Prediction— Peru - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Peru - Primera División Predictions