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Vikingur R. vs Hafnarfjordur Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Regular Season - 8 ·Friday, May 22, 2026, 19:15

Vikingur R.

PPG 2.50 · HOME

5 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O3.5

Hafnarfjordur

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 3.5

Combined xG of 5.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 84.2% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8% — a clear edge.

+43.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.3%0-10.2%0-20.1%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-01.4%1-11.1%1-20.5%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-03.5%2-12.8%2-21.2%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.0%3-14.8%3-22.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-033.2%4+-127.0%4+-211.0%4+-33.0%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 77.3% 84.7% 1.18 -8.8%

Draw 15.7% 16.7% 6.00 -3.5%

Away win 7.1% 8.3% 12.00 -8.9%

Over 2.5 79.0% 78.1% 1.28 +1.1%

Over 3.5 84.2% 58.8% 1.70 +43.1%

BTTS 53.7% 58.8% 1.70 -8.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 74%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -7.2%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-0

xG (home)5.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.7%

H 77% / xG 5.1-0.8 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 5–0✓ 7.8%

#2 4–0 7.6%

#3 5–1 6.3%

#4 4–1 6.2%

#5 3–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vikingur R.5.1

Hafnarfjordur0.8

COMBINED 5.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.0% · O3.5 PROB 84.2%

Form & verdict PPG

VIKINGUR R. · PPG 2.50

HAFNARFJORDUR · PPG 0.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.50), Away POOR (0.40) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Vikingur R. (H) 77.3%

ODDS 1.18 · IMPLIED 84.7% EV -8.8%

Draw 15.7%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -3.5%

Hafnarfjordur (A) 7.1%

ODDS 12.00 · IMPLIED 8.3% EV -8.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vikingur R. face Hafnarfjordur in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vikingur R. a 77% chance, the draw 16% and Hafnarfjordur 7%, so Vikingur R. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 5.1 for Vikingur R. and 0.8 for Hafnarfjordur (5.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 5-0. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vikingur R. are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 0.40 for Hafnarfjordur. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +43.1%. This match finished 5-0.

Vikingur R. vs Hafnarfjordur Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

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