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Breidablik vs KR Reykjavik Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Regular Season - 8 ·Friday, May 22, 2026, 19:15

Breidablik

PPG 2.33 · HOME

6 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

KR Reykjavik

PPG 3.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 79.0% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.7%0-11.8%0-22.4%0-32.0%0-4+2.4%1 1-01.7%1-14.3%1-25.6%1-34.8%1-4+5.7%2 2-02.0%2-15.1%2-26.6%2-35.7%2-4+6.8%3 3-01.6%3-14.1%3-25.2%3-34.5%3-4+5.4%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-14.2%4+-25.4%4+-34.6%4+-4+5.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.0% 36.4% 2.75 -1.0%

Draw 22.4% 23.8% 4.20 -3.5%

Away win 41.6% 50.0% 2.00 -16.8%

Over 2.5 79.0% 80.0% 1.25 -1.3%

Over 3.5 72.7% 60.6% 1.65 +20.0%

BTTS 66.7% 80.0% 1.25 -16.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 74%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -7.2%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 6-3

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)2.6 BTTS prob66.7%

A 42% / xG 2.4-2.6 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 6.6%

#2 2–3 5.7%

#3 1–2 5.6%

#4 3–2 5.2%

#5 2–1 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Breidablik2.4

KR Reykjavik2.6

COMBINED 4.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.0% · O3.5 PROB 72.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BREIDABLIK · PPG 2.33

KR REYKJAVIK · PPG 3.00

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

90%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs Home EXCELLENT (2.33)

Win probability 1X2

Breidablik (H) 36.0%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -1.0%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -3.5%

KR Reykjavik (A) 41.6%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -16.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Breidablik face KR Reykjavik in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Breidablik a 36% chance, the draw 22% and KR Reykjavik 42%, so KR Reykjavik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Breidablik and 2.6 for KR Reykjavik (4.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Breidablik are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 3.00 for KR Reykjavik. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +20.0%. This match finished 6-3.

Breidablik vs KR Reykjavik Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

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