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Shamrock Rovers vs Sligo Rovers Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Matchday 18 ·Friday, May 22, 2026, 19:00

Shamrock Rovers

PPG 2.75 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWDD

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Sligo Rovers

PPG 0.63 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLDL

// Model verdict

Home 70% chance

Model probability 58.2% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.9%0-15.7%0-21.4%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-019.6%1-19.4%1-22.3%1-30.4%1-4+0.0%2 2-016.1%2-17.8%2-21.9%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-08.9%3-14.3%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-05.3%4+-12.5%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.2% 75.2% 1.33 -22.6%

Draw 26.2% 20.8% 4.80 +15.5%

Away win 15.6% 11.1% 9.00 +24.2%

Over 2.5 46.2% 57.8% 1.73 -20.1%

Over 3.5 16.6% 35.7% 2.80 -32.1%

BTTS 46.2% 50.0% 2.00 -7.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 88 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -10.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob46.2%

H 58% / xG 1.6-0.5 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.6%

#2 2–0 16.1%

#3 0–0 11.9%

#4 1–1 9.4%

#5 3–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shamrock Rovers1.6

Sligo Rovers0.5

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 16.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SHAMROCK ROVERS · PPG 2.75

SLIGO ROVERS · PPG 0.63

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

70%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.75) vs P(Home)=58.2%

Win probability 1X2

Shamrock Rovers (H) 58.2%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -22.6%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +15.5%

Sligo Rovers (A) 15.6%

ODDS 9.00 · IMPLIED 11.1% EV +24.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shamrock Rovers face Sligo Rovers in Ireland - Premier Division on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shamrock Rovers a 58% chance, the draw 26% and Sligo Rovers 16%, so Shamrock Rovers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Shamrock Rovers and 0.5 for Sligo Rovers (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shamrock Rovers are averaging 2.75 points per game versus 0.63 for Sligo Rovers. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +24.2%. This match finished 1-2.

Shamrock Rovers vs Sligo Rovers Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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