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Drogheda Utd vs Dundalk Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Regular Season - 18 ·Friday, May 22, 2026, 19:00

Drogheda Utd

PPG 1.38 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Dundalk

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.7% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-17.8%0-25.7%0-32.7%0-4+1.4%1 1-07.9%1-111.5%1-28.3%1-34.0%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.8%2-18.4%2-26.1%2-33.0%2-4+1.5%3 3-02.9%3-14.1%3-23.0%3-31.5%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-12.1%4+-21.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.8% 32.3% 3.10 +14.1%

Draw 26.0% 27.0% 3.70 -2.3%

Away win 37.2% 47.6% 2.10 -21.9%

Over 2.5 59.1% 59.9% 1.67 -1.3%

Over 3.5 33.5% 37.0% 2.70 -9.6%

BTTS 59.7% 64.5% 1.55 -7.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 6.0%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob59.7%

H 37% / xG 1.5-1.5 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.5%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 1–2 8.3%

#4 0–0 5.4%

#5 1–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Drogheda Utd1.5

Dundalk1.5

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 33.5%

Form & verdict PPG

DROGHEDA UTD · PPG 1.38

DUNDALK · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.38) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Drogheda Utd (H) 36.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +14.1%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -2.3%

Dundalk (A) 37.2%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -21.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Drogheda Utd face Dundalk in Ireland - Premier Division on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Drogheda Utd a 37% chance, the draw 26% and Dundalk 37%, so Dundalk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Drogheda Utd and 1.5 for Dundalk (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Drogheda Utd are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.00 for Dundalk. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +14.1%. This match finished 1-1.

Drogheda Utd vs Dundalk Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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