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Wexford vs UC Dublin Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Regular Season - 17 ·Friday, May 22, 2026, 18:45

Wexford

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

UC Dublin

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-111.2%0-27.0%0-32.9%0-4+1.2%1 1-010.5%1-113.0%1-28.1%1-33.4%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.1%2-17.6%2-24.7%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.4%3-12.9%3-21.8%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.1%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.8% 39.1% 2.56 -8.3%

Draw 27.4% 29.9% 3.35 -4.9%

Away win 36.8% 38.2% 2.62 -3.6%

Over 2.5 47.6% 51.8% 1.93 -8.1%

Over 3.5 22.3% 29.4% 3.40 -14.5%

BTTS 51.6% 58.8% 1.70 -12.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -20.9%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob51.6%

A 37% / xG 1.2-1.2 / U2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–0 9.0%

#3 0–1 11.2%

#4 1–0 10.5%

#5 1–2 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wexford1.2

UC Dublin1.2

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 22.3%

Form & verdict PPG

WEXFORD · PPG 2.00

UC DUBLIN · PPG 1.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.00) > Away AVERAGE (1.38)

Win probability 1X2

Wexford (H) 35.8%

ODDS 2.56 · IMPLIED 39.1% EV -8.3%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -4.9%

UC Dublin (A) 36.8%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -3.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wexford face UC Dublin in Ireland - First Division on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wexford a 36% chance, the draw 27% and UC Dublin 37%, so UC Dublin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Wexford and 1.2 for UC Dublin (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wexford are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.38 for UC Dublin. This match finished 2-1.

Wexford vs UC Dublin Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ireland - First Division Predictions