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Kerry vs Bray Wanderers Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Regular Season - 17 ·Friday, May 22, 2026, 18:45

Kerry

PPG 1.50 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Bray Wanderers

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.6%0-112.0%0-26.8%0-32.6%0-4+0.9%1 1-011.8%1-113.3%1-27.6%1-32.9%1-4+1.0%2 2-06.5%2-17.4%2-24.2%2-31.6%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.4%3-12.7%3-21.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.0%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.4% 29.9% 3.35 +18.6%

Draw 28.4% 29.4% 3.40 -2.1%

Away win 36.3% 47.6% 2.10 -23.8%

Over 2.5 46.2% 52.4% 1.91 -11.8%

Over 3.5 19.0% 30.8% 3.25 -22.9%

BTTS 51.6% 58.8% 1.70 -12.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -20.9%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 2 30%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob51.6%

D 28% / xG 1.1-1.1 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 0–0 10.6%

#3 0–1 12.0%

#4 1–0 11.8%

#5 1–2 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kerry1.1

Bray Wanderers1.1

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 19.0%

Form & verdict PPG

KERRY · PPG 1.50

BRAY WANDERERS · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away POOR (0.88)

Win probability 1X2

Kerry (H) 35.4%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +18.6%

Draw 28.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -2.1%

Bray Wanderers (A) 36.3%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -23.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kerry face Bray Wanderers in Ireland - First Division on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kerry a 35% chance, the draw 28% and Bray Wanderers 36%, so Bray Wanderers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Kerry and 1.1 for Bray Wanderers (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kerry are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.88 for Bray Wanderers. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +18.6%. This match finished 2-2.

Kerry vs Bray Wanderers Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ireland - First Division Predictions