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Finn Harps vs Longford Town Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Regular Season - 17 ·Friday, May 22, 2026, 18:45

Finn Harps

PPG 1.50 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

Longford Town

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-020.1%0-114.5%0-25.2%0-31.3%0-4+0.3%1 1-017.8%1-112.8%1-24.6%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-07.8%2-15.6%2-22.0%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.3%3-11.7%3-20.6%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.1% 39.1% 2.56 -2.5%

Draw 35.2% 29.9% 3.35 +17.9%

Away win 26.6% 38.2% 2.62 -18.2%

Over 2.5 35.0% 51.8% 1.93 -32.5%

Over 3.5 7.9% 29.4% 3.40 -43.9%

BTTS 46.2% 58.8% 1.70 -21.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -20.9%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob46.2%

H 38% / xG 0.9-0.7 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 20.1%

#2 1–0 17.8%

#3 1–1 12.8%

#4 0–1 14.5%

#5 2–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Finn Harps0.9

Longford Town0.7

COMBINED 1.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 7.9%

Form & verdict PPG

FINN HARPS · PPG 1.50

LONGFORD TOWN · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.50) > Away POOR (0.88)

Win probability 1X2

Finn Harps (H) 38.1%

ODDS 2.56 · IMPLIED 39.1% EV -2.5%

Draw 35.2%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV +17.9%

Longford Town (A) 26.6%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -18.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Finn Harps face Longford Town in Ireland - First Division on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Finn Harps a 38% chance, the draw 35% and Longford Town 27%, so Finn Harps are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Finn Harps and 0.7 for Longford Town (1.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Finn Harps are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.88 for Longford Town. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +17.9%. This match finished 2-2.

Finn Harps vs Longford Town Prediction— Ireland - First Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Ireland - First Division Predictions