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Shelbourne vs Waterford Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Matchday 18 ·Friday, May 22, 2026, 18:45

Shelbourne

PPG 0.50 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLDD

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Waterford

PPG 0.13 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 62% chance

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-14.0%0-22.1%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-08.4%1-18.9%1-24.7%1-31.7%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.3%2-19.8%2-25.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.8%3-17.3%3-23.9%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-06.3%4+-16.7%4+-23.6%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.9% 76.3% 1.31 -29.4%

Draw 23.7% 20.4% 4.90 +9.7%

Away win 22.4% 10.5% 9.50 +67.7%

Over 2.5 61.4% 61.7% 1.62 -0.5%

Over 3.5 41.4% 39.2% 2.55 +5.6%

BTTS 59.7% 54.1% 1.85 +10.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 88 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -10.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob59.7%

H 54% / xG 2.2-1.1 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.9%

#2 2–1✓ 9.8%

#3 2–0 9.3%

#4 3–1 7.3%

#5 1–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shelbourne2.2

Waterford1.1

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 41.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SHELBOURNE · PPG 0.50

WATERFORD · PPG 0.13

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

62%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.50) > Away POOR (0.13)

Win probability 1X2

Shelbourne (H) 53.9%

ODDS 1.31 · IMPLIED 76.3% EV -29.4%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 4.90 · IMPLIED 20.4% EV +9.7%

Waterford (A) 22.4%

ODDS 9.50 · IMPLIED 10.5% EV +67.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shelbourne face Waterford in Ireland - Premier Division on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shelbourne a 54% chance, the draw 24% and Waterford 22%, so Shelbourne are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Shelbourne and 1.1 for Waterford (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shelbourne are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 0.13 for Waterford. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +67.7%. This match finished 2-1.

Shelbourne vs Waterford Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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