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Galway Utd vs Bohemians Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Matchday 18 ·Friday, May 22, 2026, 18:45

Galway Utd

PPG 1.57 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDWD

2 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Bohemians

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 56% chance

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-111.7%0-27.8%0-33.5%0-4+1.6%1 1-09.6%1-112.9%1-28.6%1-33.8%1-4+1.7%2 2-05.3%2-17.1%2-24.7%2-32.1%2-4+0.9%3 3-01.9%3-12.6%3-21.7%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.9%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.1% 27.8% 3.60 +19.2%

Draw 27.7% 29.4% 3.40 -3.5%

Away win 39.2% 49.5% 2.02 -20.8%

Over 2.5 47.6% 51.8% 1.93 -8.1%

Over 3.5 22.9% 29.9% 3.35 -14.0%

BTTS 51.6% 57.8% 1.73 -10.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 88 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 35%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI -10.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 16%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-4

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob51.6%

A 39% / xG 1.1-1.3 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 8.7%

#3 0–1 11.7%

#4 1–2 8.6%

#5 0–2 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Galway Utd1.1

Bohemians1.3

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 22.9%

Form & verdict PPG

GALWAY UTD · PPG 1.57

BOHEMIANS · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

56%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.57), Away GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

Galway Utd (H) 33.1%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +19.2%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -3.5%

Bohemians (A) 39.2%

ODDS 2.02 · IMPLIED 49.5% EV -20.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Galway Utd face Bohemians in Ireland - Premier Division on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Galway Utd a 33% chance, the draw 28% and Bohemians 39%, so Bohemians are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Galway Utd and 1.3 for Bohemians (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Galway Utd are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.75 for Bohemians. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +19.2%. This match finished 2-4.

Galway Utd vs Bohemians Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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