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Derry City vs St. Patricks Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Regular Season - 18 ·Friday, May 22, 2026, 18:45

Derry City

PPG 1.50 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

St. Patricks

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-111.5%0-27.9%0-33.6%0-4+1.7%1 1-09.3%1-112.7%1-28.7%1-34.0%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.2%2-17.1%2-24.8%2-32.2%2-4+1.0%3 3-01.9%3-12.6%3-21.8%3-30.8%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.9%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.1% 36.0% 2.78 -10.8%

Draw 26.9% 31.3% 3.20 -8.3%

Away win 40.9% 40.0% 2.50 +2.3%

Over 2.5 47.6% 46.5% 2.15 +2.3%

Over 3.5 23.7% 23.8% 4.20 -0.3%

BTTS 51.6% 54.6% 1.83 -5.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 65 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 6.0%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 18%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob51.6%

A 41% / xG 1.1-1.4 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0✓ 8.4%

#3 0–1 11.5%

#4 1–2 8.7%

#5 0–2 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Derry City1.1

St. Patricks1.4

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 23.7%

Form & verdict PPG

DERRY CITY · PPG 1.50

ST. PATRICKS · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.50), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Derry City (H) 32.1%

ODDS 2.78 · IMPLIED 36.0% EV -10.8%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -8.3%

St. Patricks (A) 40.9%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +2.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Derry City face St. Patricks in Ireland - Premier Division on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Derry City a 32% chance, the draw 27% and St. Patricks 41%, so St. Patricks are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Derry City and 1.4 for St. Patricks (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Derry City are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.50 for St. Patricks. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +2.3%. This match finished 0-0.

Derry City vs St. Patricks Prediction— Ireland - Premier Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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