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Keflavik vs Thor Akureyri Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Regular Season - 8 ·Friday, May 22, 2026, 18:00

Keflavik

PPG 0.67 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Thor Akureyri

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-13.1%0-21.6%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-07.5%1-17.7%1-23.9%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.3%2-19.5%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.7%3-17.8%3-24.0%3-31.4%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-08.5%4+-18.7%4+-24.4%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.5% 57.1% 1.75 +4.1%

Draw 21.2% 24.4% 4.10 -7.8%

Away win 19.3% 28.2% 3.55 -18.9%

Over 2.5 63.9% 75.2% 1.33 -15.0%

Over 3.5 46.1% 54.1% 1.85 -14.7%

BTTS 59.7% 74.1% 1.35 -19.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 74%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -7.2%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob59.7%

H 60% / xG 2.5-1.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.5%

#2 2–0 9.3%

#3 1–1 7.7%

#4 3–1 7.8%

#5 3–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Keflavik2.5

Thor Akureyri1.0

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 46.1%

Form & verdict PPG

KEFLAVIK · PPG 0.67

THOR AKUREYRI · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.67), Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Keflavik (H) 59.5%

ODDS 1.75 · IMPLIED 57.1% EV +4.1%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -7.8%

Thor Akureyri (A) 19.3%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -18.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Keflavik face Thor Akureyri in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Keflavik a 60% chance, the draw 21% and Thor Akureyri 19%, so Keflavik are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Keflavik and 1.0 for Thor Akureyri (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Keflavik are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 0.75 for Thor Akureyri. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +4.1%. This match finished 1-0.

Keflavik vs Thor Akureyri Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

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