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KA Akureyri vs Valur Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Regular Season - 8 ·Friday, May 22, 2026, 18:00

KA Akureyri

PPG 0.75 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Valur

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-14.2%0-24.3%0-32.9%0-4+2.3%1 1-03.8%1-17.7%1-27.9%1-35.3%1-4+4.3%2 2-03.5%2-17.2%2-27.3%2-34.9%2-4+4.0%3 3-02.2%3-14.4%3-24.5%3-33.0%3-4+2.5%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-13.1%4+-23.2%4+-32.1%4+-4+1.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.4% 46.5% 2.15 -23.9%

Draw 23.6% 25.0% 4.00 -3.4%

Away win 41.0% 38.5% 2.60 +6.6%

Over 2.5 63.9% 73.5% 1.36 -13.1%

Over 3.5 54.4% 51.8% 1.93 +5.0%

BTTS 63.0% 75.2% 1.33 -16.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 74%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -7.2%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob63.0%

A 41% / xG 1.9-2.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.7%

#2 1–2 7.9%

#3 2–2 7.3%

#4 2–1 7.2%

#5 1–3 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

KA Akureyri1.9

Valur2.0

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 54.4%

Form & verdict PPG

KA AKUREYRI · PPG 0.75

VALUR · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.50) vs Home POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

KA Akureyri (H) 35.4%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -23.9%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -3.4%

Valur (A) 41.0%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +6.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

KA Akureyri face Valur in Iceland - Úrvalsdeild on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives KA Akureyri a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Valur 41%, so Valur are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for KA Akureyri and 2.0 for Valur (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, KA Akureyri are averaging 0.75 points per game versus 1.50 for Valur. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +6.6%. This match finished 0-1.

KA Akureyri vs Valur Prediction— Iceland - Úrvalsdeild

Match Preview & Prediction

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