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Donau vs Wiener Viktoria Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Ost

Ost - 32 ·Friday, May 22, 2026, 17:30

Donau

PPG 1.86 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Wiener Viktoria

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-15.1%0-23.4%0-31.5%0-4+0.7%1 1-07.4%1-19.8%1-26.5%1-32.9%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.2%2-19.5%2-26.3%2-32.8%2-4+1.2%3 3-04.6%3-16.1%3-24.1%3-31.8%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-14.6%4+-23.1%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.7% 50.0% 2.00 +3.4%

Draw 24.0% 25.0% 4.00 -2.4%

Away win 24.3% 36.4% 2.75 -19.9%

Over 2.5 61.4% 65.4% 1.53 -6.1%

Over 3.5 41.1% 46.1% 2.17 -10.8%

BTTS 59.7% 70.9% 1.41 -15.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 13%

ROI -8.5%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob59.7%

H 52% / xG 1.9-1.3 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.8%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 7.2%

#4 1–2 6.5%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Donau1.9

Wiener Viktoria1.3

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 41.1%

Form & verdict PPG

DONAU · PPG 1.86

WIENER VIKTORIA · PPG 1.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.86) > Away AVERAGE (1.14)

Win probability 1X2

Donau (H) 51.7%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +3.4%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -2.4%

Wiener Viktoria (A) 24.3%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -19.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Donau face Wiener Viktoria in Austria - Regionalliga - Ost on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Donau a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Wiener Viktoria 24%, so Donau are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Donau and 1.3 for Wiener Viktoria (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Donau are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.14 for Wiener Viktoria. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +3.4%. This match finished 0-2.

Donau vs Wiener Viktoria Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Ost

Match Preview & Prediction

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