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Djurgarden vs Brommapojkarna Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Matchday 9 ·Friday, May 22, 2026, 17:00

Djurgarden

PPG 1.40 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWWW

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Brommapojkarna

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 64% chance

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-13.1%0-21.9%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-06.1%1-17.6%1-24.7%1-32.0%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.5%2-19.3%2-25.8%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-06.1%3-17.6%3-24.7%3-31.9%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-06.7%4+-18.3%4+-25.1%4+-32.1%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.0% 71.4% 1.40 -24.4%

Draw 23.6% 21.7% 4.60 +5.1%

Away win 22.4% 14.3% 7.00 +34.1%

Over 2.5 63.9% 63.7% 1.57 +0.3%

Over 3.5 50.3% 40.8% 2.45 +23.2%

BTTS 59.7% 57.8% 1.73 +3.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 90 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -9.4%

Bet Hit 54%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob59.7%

H 54% / xG 2.4-1.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.3%

#2 1–1 7.6%

#3 3–1 7.6%

#4 2–0 7.5%

#5 3–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Djurgarden2.4

Brommapojkarna1.2

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 50.3%

Form & verdict PPG

DJURGARDEN · PPG 1.40

BROMMAPOJKARNA · PPG 1.40

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

64%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.40), Away AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

Djurgarden (H) 54.0%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -24.4%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +5.1%

Brommapojkarna (A) 22.4%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +34.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Djurgarden face Brommapojkarna in Sweden - Allsvenskan on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Djurgarden a 54% chance, the draw 24% and Brommapojkarna 22%, so Djurgarden are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Djurgarden and 1.2 for Brommapojkarna (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Djurgarden are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.40 for Brommapojkarna. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +34.1%. This match finished 1-2.

Djurgarden vs Brommapojkarna Prediction— Sweden - Allsvenskan

Match Preview & Prediction

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