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Karlovac vs Jarun Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Regular Season - 32 ·Friday, May 22, 2026, 17:00

Karlovac

PPG 1.75 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Jarun

PPG 0.63 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.8%0-19.9%0-24.2%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.2%1-112.9%1-25.4%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.9%2-18.3%2-23.5%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.3%3-13.6%3-21.5%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.5%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.8% 38.2% 2.62 +25.2%

Draw 27.9% 35.7% 2.80 -13.1%

Away win 24.3% 40.0% 2.50 -23.5%

Over 2.5 46.2% 44.4% 2.25 +4.0%

Over 3.5 16.9% 26.0% 3.85 -21.0%

BTTS 48.8% 54.1% 1.85 -9.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 36%

Score Hit 38%

ROI -10.0%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.8%

H 48% / xG 1.3-0.8 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 11.8%

#3 1–0 15.2%

#4 2–0 9.9%

#5 2–1✓ 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Karlovac1.3

Jarun0.8

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 16.9%

Form & verdict PPG

KARLOVAC · PPG 1.75

JARUN · PPG 0.63

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

66%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.75) vs P(Home)=47.8%

Win probability 1X2

Karlovac (H) 47.8%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV +25.2%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -13.1%

Jarun (A) 24.3%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -23.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Karlovac face Jarun in Croatia - First NL on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Karlovac a 48% chance, the draw 28% and Jarun 24%, so Karlovac are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Karlovac and 0.8 for Jarun (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Karlovac are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.63 for Jarun. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +25.2%. This match finished 2-1.

Karlovac vs Jarun Prediction— Croatia - First NL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Croatia - First NL Predictions