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Wealdstone vs Scunthorpe Prediction— England - National League

Regular Season - 45 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Wealdstone

PPG 1.73 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Scunthorpe

PPG 1.77 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 68.6% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-15.3%0-24.7%0-32.8%0-4+1.9%1 1-05.1%1-19.2%1-28.2%1-34.9%1-4+3.3%2 2-04.4%2-17.9%2-27.1%2-34.2%2-4+2.9%3 3-02.5%3-14.6%3-24.1%3-32.4%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.9%4+-22.6%4+-31.6%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.6% 39.2% 2.55 -4.1%

Draw 22.2% 28.6% 3.50 -22.3%

Away win 40.2% 42.0% 2.38 -4.3%

Over 2.5 68.3% 65.4% 1.53 +4.5%

Over 3.5 46.8% 43.5% 2.30 +7.6%

BTTS 68.6% 70.4% 1.42 -2.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 37%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob68.6%

A 40% / xG 1.7-1.8 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 9.2%

#2 1–2 8.2%

#3 2–1 7.9%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 0–1 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wealdstone1.7

Scunthorpe1.8

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.3% · O3.5 PROB 46.8%

Form & verdict PPG

WEALDSTONE · PPG 1.73

SCUNTHORPE · PPG 1.77

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.73), Away GOOD (1.77)

Win probability 1X2

Wealdstone (H) 37.6%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -4.1%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -22.3%

Scunthorpe (A) 40.2%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -4.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wealdstone face Scunthorpe in England - National League on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wealdstone a 38% chance, the draw 22% and Scunthorpe 40%, so Scunthorpe are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Wealdstone and 1.8 for Scunthorpe (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wealdstone are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.77 for Scunthorpe. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +7.6%. This match finished 1-1.

Wealdstone vs Scunthorpe Prediction— England - National League

Match Preview & Prediction

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