Today / Denmark - 1. Division / Aarhus Fremad vs Aalborg BK

Aarhus Fremad vs Aalborg BK Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Relegation Group - 31 ·Friday, May 22, 2026, 16:00

Aarhus Fremad

PPG 1.53 · HOME

5 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Aalborg BK

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-17.4%0-24.2%0-31.6%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.2%1-111.8%1-26.8%1-32.6%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.2%2-19.4%2-25.4%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.3%3-15.0%3-22.9%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.9%4+-21.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.7% 55.6% 1.80 -12.3%

Draw 25.9% 26.7% 3.75 -1.7%

Away win 25.4% 26.7% 3.75 -2.9%

Over 2.5 52.6% 63.7% 1.57 -17.4%

Over 3.5 29.7% 41.7% 2.40 -17.2%

BTTS 54.6% 66.7% 1.50 -18.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -5.4%

Bet Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.6%

H 49% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 1–0 10.2%

#4 2–0 8.2%

#5 0–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Aarhus Fremad1.6

Aalborg BK1.2

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 29.7%

Form & verdict PPG

AARHUS FREMAD · PPG 1.53

AALBORG BK · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.53) > Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Aarhus Fremad (H) 48.7%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -12.3%

Draw 25.9%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -1.7%

Aalborg BK (A) 25.4%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -2.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Aarhus Fremad face Aalborg BK in Denmark - 1. Division on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Aarhus Fremad a 49% chance, the draw 26% and Aalborg BK 25%, so Aarhus Fremad are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Aarhus Fremad and 1.2 for Aalborg BK (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Aarhus Fremad are averaging 1.53 points per game versus 1.20 for Aalborg BK. This match finished 5-0.

Aarhus Fremad vs Aalborg BK Prediction— Denmark - 1. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

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