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Leobendorf vs Favoritner AC Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Ost

Ost - 32 ·Friday, May 22, 2026, 16:00

Leobendorf

PPG 1.93 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Favoritner AC

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.4% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-14.8%0-22.0%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.9%1-19.7%1-24.0%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-012.0%2-19.8%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.0%3-16.5%3-22.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-06.4%4+-15.2%4+-22.1%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.4% 54.1% 1.85 +0.6%

Draw 24.3% 25.0% 4.00 -1.7%

Away win 21.3% 32.3% 3.10 -20.4%

Over 2.5 52.6% 66.7% 1.50 -21.1%

Over 3.5 31.3% 46.9% 2.13 -33.3%

BTTS 51.6% 69.9% 1.43 -26.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 13%

ROI -8.5%

Bet Hit 64%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob51.6%

H 54% / xG 2.0-0.8 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.0%

#2 1–1 9.7%

#3 1–0 11.9%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 3–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Leobendorf2.0

Favoritner AC0.8

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 31.3%

Form & verdict PPG

LEOBENDORF · PPG 1.93

FAVORITNER AC · PPG 0.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.93) vs P(Home)=54.4%

Win probability 1X2

Leobendorf (H) 54.4%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +0.6%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -1.7%

Favoritner AC (A) 21.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -20.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Leobendorf face Favoritner AC in Austria - Regionalliga - Ost on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Leobendorf a 54% chance, the draw 24% and Favoritner AC 21%, so Leobendorf are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Leobendorf and 0.8 for Favoritner AC (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Leobendorf are averaging 1.93 points per game versus 0.57 for Favoritner AC. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +0.6%. This match finished 0-1.

Leobendorf vs Favoritner AC Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Ost

Match Preview & Prediction

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