Today / Finland - Ykkönen / Tampere Utd vs JJK

Tampere Utd vs JJK Prediction— Finland - Ykkönen

Group Stage ·Friday, May 22, 2026, 15:30

Tampere Utd

PPG 1.75 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

JJK

PPG 2.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-13.3%0-22.4%0-31.2%0-4+0.6%1 1-05.3%1-17.7%1-25.6%1-32.7%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.2%2-19.0%2-26.5%2-33.2%2-4+1.6%3 3-04.8%3-17.0%3-25.1%3-32.5%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-17.0%4+-25.1%4+-32.5%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.4% 50.0% 2.00 +4.8%

Draw 22.9% 29.4% 3.40 -13.3%

Away win 24.7% 32.3% 3.10 -14.1%

Over 2.5 63.9% 66.7% 1.50 -4.2%

Over 3.5 52.3% 45.5% 2.20 +15.1%

BTTS 62.5% 69.4% 1.44 -10.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 19 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 79%

BTTS 68%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 9.8%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob62.5%

H 52% / xG 2.3-1.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.0%

#2 1–1 7.7%

#3 3–1 7.0%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 2–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tampere Utd2.3

JJK1.5

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 52.3%

Form & verdict PPG

TAMPERE UTD · PPG 1.75

JJK · PPG 2.25

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

65%

DANGER

Home weakness: GOOD (1.75) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.25)

Win probability 1X2

Tampere Utd (H) 52.4%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +4.8%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -13.3%

JJK (A) 24.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -14.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tampere Utd face JJK in Finland - Ykkönen on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tampere Utd a 52% chance, the draw 23% and JJK 25%, so Tampere Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Tampere Utd and 1.5 for JJK (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tampere Utd are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 2.25 for JJK. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +15.1%. This match finished 1-0.

Tampere Utd vs JJK Prediction— Finland - Ykkönen

Match Preview & Prediction

More Finland - Ykkönen Predictions