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SJK Akatemia vs Haka Prediction— Finland - Ykkösliiga

Group Stage ·Friday, May 22, 2026, 15:30

SJK Akatemia

PPG 1.00 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Haka

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 50.7% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.2%0-120.0%0-212.4%0-35.1%0-4+2.1%1 1-09.5%1-111.7%1-27.2%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-02.8%2-13.4%2-22.1%2-30.9%2-4+0.4%3 3-00.5%3-10.7%3-20.4%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 16.2% 20.0% 5.00 -11.4%

Draw 33.2% 25.3% 3.95 +31.1%

Away win 50.7% 64.5% 1.55 -21.4%

Over 2.5 35.0% 61.7% 1.62 -43.3%

Over 3.5 11.2% 40.0% 2.50 -43.2%

BTTS 46.2% 61.7% 1.62 -25.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 79%

Score Hit 57%

ROI -16.7%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob46.2%

A 51% / xG 0.6-1.2 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1✓ 20.0%

#2 0–0 16.2%

#3 1–1 11.7%

#4 0–2 12.4%

#5 1–0 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SJK Akatemia0.6

Haka1.2

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 11.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SJK AKATEMIA · PPG 1.00

HAKA · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

SJK Akatemia (H) 16.2%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -11.4%

Draw 33.2%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +31.1%

Haka (A) 50.7%

ODDS 1.55 · IMPLIED 64.5% EV -21.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

SJK Akatemia face Haka in Finland - Ykkösliiga on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SJK Akatemia a 16% chance, the draw 33% and Haka 51%, so Haka are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for SJK Akatemia and 1.2 for Haka (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SJK Akatemia are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.50 for Haka. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +31.1%. This match finished 0-1.

SJK Akatemia vs Haka Prediction— Finland - Ykkösliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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