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Kongsvinger B vs Tromso B Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5

Regular Season - 8 ·Friday, May 22, 2026, 14:00

Kongsvinger B

PPG 1.67 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Tromso B

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-12.9%0-21.5%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-07.3%1-17.4%1-23.8%1-31.3%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.2%2-19.4%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.7%3-17.9%3-24.0%3-31.4%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-08.9%4+-19.1%4+-24.7%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.5% 75.2% 1.33 -19.5%

Draw 21.2% 18.2% 5.50 +10.0%

Away win 18.3% 18.2% 5.50 +0.4%

Over 2.5 63.9% 76.9% 1.30 -16.9%

Over 3.5 47.4% 57.8% 1.73 -18.0%

BTTS 59.7% 67.1% 1.49 -11.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 15 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 80%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 20%

ROI -1.1%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob59.7%

H 60% / xG 2.5-1.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1✓ 9.4%

#2 2–0 9.2%

#3 1–1 7.4%

#4 3–1 7.9%

#5 3–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kongsvinger B2.5

Tromso B1.0

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 47.4%

Form & verdict PPG

KONGSVINGER B · PPG 1.67

TROMSO B · PPG 0.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.67) vs P(Home)=60.5%

Win probability 1X2

Kongsvinger B (H) 60.5%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -19.5%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +10.0%

Tromso B (A) 18.3%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +0.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kongsvinger B face Tromso B in Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5 on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kongsvinger B a 61% chance, the draw 21% and Tromso B 18%, so Kongsvinger B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Kongsvinger B and 1.0 for Tromso B (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kongsvinger B are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 0.33 for Tromso B. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +10.0%. This match finished 2-1.

Kongsvinger B vs Tromso B Prediction— Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5

Match Preview & Prediction

More Norway - 3. Division - Girone 5 Predictions