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Truro City vs Carlisle Utd Prediction— England - National League

Regular Season - 45 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Truro City

PPG 0.95 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Carlisle Utd

PPG 1.91 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 61.1% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+13.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-111.7%0-211.1%0-37.0%0-4+5.1%1 1-05.5%1-110.4%1-29.9%1-36.2%1-4+4.6%2 2-02.4%2-14.6%2-24.4%2-32.8%2-4+2.0%3 3-00.7%3-11.4%3-21.3%3-30.8%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.4%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 17.1% 27.8% 3.60 -38.4%

Draw 21.8% 28.6% 3.50 -23.7%

Away win 61.1% 54.1% 1.85 +13.0%

Over 2.5 52.8% 54.1% 1.85 -2.3%

Over 3.5 30.6% 32.3% 3.10 -5.1%

BTTS 50.2% 58.8% 1.70 -14.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 37%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob50.2%

A 61% / xG 0.9-1.9 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1✓ 11.7%

#2 0–2 11.1%

#3 1–1 10.4%

#4 1–2 9.9%

#5 0–3 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Truro City0.9

Carlisle Utd1.9

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.8% · O3.5 PROB 30.6%

Form & verdict PPG

TRURO CITY · PPG 0.95

CARLISLE UTD · PPG 1.91

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.91) vs Home POOR (0.95)

Win probability 1X2

Truro City (H) 17.1%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -38.4%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -23.7%

Carlisle Utd (A) 61.1%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +13.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Truro City face Carlisle Utd in England - National League on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Truro City a 17% chance, the draw 22% and Carlisle Utd 61%, so Carlisle Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Truro City and 1.9 for Carlisle Utd (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Truro City are averaging 0.95 points per game versus 1.91 for Carlisle Utd. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +13.0%. This match finished 0-1.

Truro City vs Carlisle Utd Prediction— England - National League

Match Preview & Prediction

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