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Livyi Bereh vs MFC Metalurh Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Regular Season - 29 ·Friday, May 22, 2026, 10:00

Livyi Bereh

PPG 2.36 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

MFC Metalurh

PPG 0.79 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.36), Away POOR (0.79) - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-13.3%0-20.7%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-016.4%1-17.1%1-21.5%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-017.5%2-17.5%2-21.6%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-012.5%3-15.4%3-21.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-010.9%4+-14.7%4+-21.0%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.7% — — —

Draw 23.2% — — —

Away win 9.1% — — —

Over 2.5 48.9% — — —

Over 3.5 25.6% — — —

BTTS 46.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 52 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 50%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 1.3%

Bet Hit 78%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob46.2%

H 68% / xG 2.1-0.4 / O2.5 49% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 17.5%

#2 1–0 16.4%

#3 3–0 12.5%

#4 0–0 7.7%

#5 1–1 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Livyi Bereh2.1

MFC Metalurh0.4

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.9% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LIVYI BEREH · PPG 2.36

MFC METALURH · PPG 0.79

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in EXCELLENT form (2.36), Away POOR (0.79) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Livyi Bereh (H) 67.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

MFC Metalurh (A) 9.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Livyi Bereh face MFC Metalurh in Ukraine - Persha Liga on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Livyi Bereh a 68% chance, the draw 23% and MFC Metalurh 9%, so Livyi Bereh are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Livyi Bereh and 0.4 for MFC Metalurh (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Livyi Bereh are averaging 2.36 points per game versus 0.79 for MFC Metalurh. This match finished 4-0.

Livyi Bereh vs MFC Metalurh Prediction— Ukraine - Persha Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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