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Sutton Utd vs Altrincham Prediction— England - National League

Regular Season - 45 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 14:00

Sutton Utd

PPG 1.14 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Altrincham

PPG 0.64 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 57.0% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-17.2%0-24.5%0-31.9%0-4+0.8%1 1-09.2%1-111.5%1-27.2%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.4%2-19.3%2-25.8%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.0%3-15.0%3-23.1%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.9%4+-21.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.8% 52.4% 1.91 -12.5%

Draw 24.5% 27.8% 3.60 -11.8%

Away win 29.7% 29.9% 3.35 -0.5%

Over 2.5 54.4% 61.7% 1.62 -11.9%

Over 3.5 32.1% 40.0% 2.50 -19.8%

BTTS 57.0% 66.7% 1.50 -14.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 37%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 79%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob57.0%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–0 9.2%

#4 2–0 7.4%

#5 1–2✓ 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sutton Utd1.6

Altrincham1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SUTTON UTD · PPG 1.14

ALTRINCHAM · PPG 0.64

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.14) > Away POOR (0.64)

Win probability 1X2

Sutton Utd (H) 45.8%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -12.5%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -11.8%

Altrincham (A) 29.7%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -0.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sutton Utd face Altrincham in England - National League on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sutton Utd a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Altrincham 30%, so Sutton Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Sutton Utd and 1.2 for Altrincham (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sutton Utd are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 0.64 for Altrincham. This match finished 1-2.

Sutton Utd vs Altrincham Prediction— England - National League

Match Preview & Prediction

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