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Shandong T. B vs Shanghai Port B Prediction— China - League Two

Regular Season - 9 ·Friday, May 22, 2026, 11:00

Shandong T. B

PPG 2.25 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Shanghai Port B

PPG 3.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 55.7% vs bookmaker-implied 33.9% — a clear edge.

+64.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.2%0-115.7%0-212.0%0-36.2%0-4+3.3%1 1-07.6%1-111.7%1-29.0%1-34.6%1-4+2.5%2 2-02.8%2-14.4%2-23.4%2-31.7%2-4+0.9%3 3-00.7%3-11.1%3-20.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 17.2% 40.8% 2.45 -34.7%

Draw 27.1% 37.0% 2.70 -16.1%

Away win 55.7% 33.9% 2.95 +64.3%

Over 2.5 46.2% 38.2% 2.62 +21.0%

Over 3.5 19.7% 19.8% 5.05 -0.3%

BTTS 48.6% 46.5% 2.15 +4.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 1.7%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob48.6%

A 56% / xG 0.7-1.5 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1✓ 15.7%

#2 1–1 11.7%

#3 0–2 12.0%

#4 0–0 10.2%

#5 1–2 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shandong T. B0.7

Shanghai Port B1.5

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 19.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SHANDONG T. B · PPG 2.25

SHANGHAI PORT B · PPG 3.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs Home EXCELLENT (2.25)

Win probability 1X2

Shandong T. B (H) 17.2%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -34.7%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -16.1%

Shanghai Port B (A) 55.7%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV +64.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Shandong T. B face Shanghai Port B in China - League Two on Friday, May 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shandong T. B a 17% chance, the draw 27% and Shanghai Port B 56%, so Shanghai Port B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Shandong T. B and 1.5 for Shanghai Port B (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shandong T. B are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 3.00 for Shanghai Port B. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +64.3%. This match finished 0-1.

Shandong T. B vs Shanghai Port B Prediction— China - League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

More China - League Two Predictions